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The Daniel Ellsberg interview

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That's what he said. Then he said, you might want more than one to assure them you had at least one to go. By the way, how many survivable warheads did Saddam Hussein have to have he didn't have any or Iran, to deter an attack? Well, one would go very far. Ten maybe.

That's roughly what North Korea has now. Ten, maybe 20, maybe a little more. And they may not have any, by the way. We don't know if they have weaponized anything to go on a missile, but they probably have, and they certainly do have the warheads. They have enough for maybe 10 or 20 warheads pretty good deterrence for most people. None yet to get the United States, which is what they are working on, and it would be good to stop them from that. But the only way you're going to do that is by concessions by negotiations in which you induce them, for instance, by stopping exercises rehearsing invading North Korea, which is what we just did a month ago. And, by not talking about decapitating them in a surprise attack, or otherwise, which was in the news just yesterday about South Korea going into a special decapitation mode, but we have been exercising that for years and announcing it. Sign a peace treaty with them and say 'we are not going to do regime change in this tyrannous country of North Korea.' Stop talking about overthrowing them and get them to freeze their warhead program and their missile program, so they don't get an ICBM and they don't get an H-bomb. It can only be done by reaching concessions of the form of ceasing to announce to them that we are preparing for regime change and for invading them. That's where we should go, and where I hoped Trump would go, but it's not where he's going. He's going toward confrontation.

If there is war with North Korea, millions of South Koreans, and probably Japanese, will die, including tens of thousands of American soldiers in South Korea. No civilians in the US will die, probably. Only our allies. But it won't cause nuclear winter. Even a war between India and Pakistan would not cause nuclear winter, but it would cause a nuclear famine, it's been shown, that would affect about 2 billion of our people in the world who are most malnourished by the loss of sunlight. It wouldn't be enough to stop all harvests, just enough to shorten harvests and to kill some, and lower the food supply enough to kill 2 billion people. A war between the US and Russia kills nearly everybody. So, we shouldn't be talking about preparing for war with Russians, period.

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